Aww, nuts!

Five years ago, Jake and Colleen Cecil planted a walnut orchard on 16 acres of their 20-acre property in Orland. The first four years, they watered and tended to the trees, waiting for the season there would be fruit for their labors.

Both work outside jobs. Jake supervises agricultural processing; Colleen is executive director of the Butte County Farm Bureau. Their goal for the farm was—and remains—modest: to pay for itself, perhaps send their kids to college.

Finally, last fall, they reaped their first crop, which a local walnut processor marketed on their behalf. A second crop sits on the trees, set for harvest in two or three months.

What should be a time of relief has become a time of discomfit. Like many nut growers she speaks with, Cecil worries about the impact of retaliatory tariffs overseas—most notably, those imposed by China—hitting home.

“The revenue from that crop is important to us to be able to pay back our investment,” she told the CN&R. The international trade situation “is definitely something we’re monitoring and watching with concern, because it is something that has the potential to influence the overall price of our crop.”

As U.S. trade policy, President Trump employs tariffs to spur negotiations. In fact, just Tuesday (July 24), he tweeted, “Tariffs are the greatest!” His administration this year placed tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods from China, with $16 billion more pending and another $200 billion under consideration. Trump has mentioned assessing tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese imports.

In response, China slapped tariffs on $34 billion in American goods, with significant hikes on agricultural duties. Walnuts and almonds both have had their tariffs jump by 40 percent—walnuts up to 60 percent or 65 percent (depending on whether shelled or unshelled), almonds to 50 percent. These nuts are the top two crops in Butte County.

“Farmers are talking about this, as equally concerned about tariffs as access to water in our state,” Cecil said. “It’s a priority topic.”

Growers have lobbied Washington through groups such as the California Farm Bureau and industry associations. Cecil and others have a local meeting scheduled next month with Rep. Doug LaMalfa, tariffs being one of the three issues on the agenda. (The others: immigration and the Farm Bill.)

Word apparently has reached the White House already. Tuesday afternoon, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced a $12 billion emergency relief package aimed to mitigate the impact of retaliatory tariffs from China and others engaged in trade battles with the U.S.—including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Cecil said details about the subsidies had not been specified but called the announcement “good news not just for U.S. agriculture but for California agriculture.”

The tariff escalations come as nut growers prepare for historic harvests. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 7.9 percent increase in California’s almond crop from last year’s record 2.27 billion pounds. Walnuts, meanwhile, are projected to go up 9 percent from last year’s 628,000 tons (or 1.38 billion pounds); if that estimate bears out, it would beat the all-time high from 2016.

“The walnut business has generally been good for growers in the North State, and for communities, the past few years,” said Bill Carriere of Carriere Family Farms, a grower and processor in Glenn. “Disrupting that is not a good thing for anyone.”

Carriere explained that the walnut tariffs have opened the door for an international competitor, Chile, whom China does not charge any duties. The price difference is significant: For every $100 Chinese buyers spend on Chilean walnuts, they need to spend $160 or $165 for ours.

China takes just 8 percent of California’s walnut crop, “so it’s not a disaster,” Carriere said. “We have other markets around the world where we could beef up our sales and take up that slack.

“But, as you know, this isn’t just an argument with China”—two other significant walnut importers, Turkey and India, also have imposed tariffs. “We’re fighting this battle on multiple fronts, unfortunately.”

As with walnuts, China is the third-largest overseas market for California almonds.

“The tariff situation, it’s a challenge for all ag; almonds, just one of many,” said Barbara Smith, sales manager for Glenn-based Riverwest Processing, who like her company’s owners is a grower. She and her husband have 8 acres planted.

“But what can you do? It’s kind of out of our hands. Will people still buy almonds? You bet. Will they buy as much? Maybe not, but it’s unknown just now.”

California dominates global almond production, growing 90 percent, so even the biggest rivals (Australia and Spain) haven’t gained much inroads, she said. The true measure, however, will come with the nuts on the trees.

Both Carriere and Smith said that shipments made during this calendar year went mostly unaffected by the new tariffs. Those got purchased previously, most all subject to former tariff levels.

“Hands down, [the impact] is going to be on the new crop,” Smith said.

As for that impact … well, it will depend on what tariffs are in place after harvest, September and October. Carriere visited China last month and relayed to officials the concerns of local farmers. He said North State growers—residents in general—“should be aware” of the issue and “put some pressure on our legislators to resolve this quickly.

“I’m cautiously optimistic, but every day is closer to harvest.”