In case of collapse, stay home

Mike Madison has a doctorate in tropical ecology from Harvard University, but he’s chosen to make his living as a small-plot organic farmer in the south Sacramento Valley.

He hasn’t given up the life of the intellect, however, as he vividly showed during a 75-minute talk titled “The Future of the Chico Bioregion” Monday evening (Oct. 16) in the Rowland-Taylor Recital Hall at Chico State University.

Madison and his wife, Dianne, farm 43 acres along Putah Creek halfway between Winters and Davis. They grow ornamental flowers, Clementine oranges, various kinds of melons and several varieties of Mediterranean olives, which they process into olive oil. They sell most of their products at the Davis Farmers Market and the Davis Food Coop.

Madison is also the author of two books: Walking the Flatlands, a highly praised examination of the human and natural ecologies of the lower Sacramento Valley, and Blithe Tomato, described as “an insider’s wry look at farmers-market society.” Both are published by Heyday Press.

Madison’s look at the future of the Chico region came naturally from his perspective as an organic farmer trying to develop a balance between what goes into his farm and what comes out. It also came from his analysis of the profound lack of balance in the larger American society, where we’re piling up debt and importing far more goods than we produce, and oil is rapidly becoming scarce and, as a result, more expensive.

On his farm, he said, he’s managed to make the balance between goods coming in—everything from tools and purchased compost to clothing—and products going out about equal. He’s not making a lot of money, but he’s comfortable enough and not losing money.

He’s not doing as well with energy, he said. He buys about 1,000 gallons of diesel oil each year, a few hundred gallons of propane and electricity for pumping water. So he decided to begin producing his own energy. He’s now growing safflower and canola for their oil and plans to convert his tractors and vehicles to biodiesel fuel. He’s also invested recently in solar power. His goal is to become 80 percent self-sustaining in energy in five years.

Looking at America in the same way—in terms of what goes in and out and how much energy we use—he noted that we are buying far more than we are selling—to the tune of $2 billion a day. If you sit on a hill overlooking the Golden Gate and watch the cargo ships entering and leaving San Francisco Bay, he noted, you’ll see that they’re much deeper in the water coming in than going out. That’s because the cargo containers are full coming in but mostly empty going out.

And we’re paying for this imbalance not in cash, but in IOUs. China and Japan are both holding more than $1 trillion each in federal Treasury bills.

And of course our energy consumption is totally out of whack. We import three-fourths of the oil we use, much of it from countries that are hostile toward us. The invasion of Iraq isn’t about building democracy, Madison said, it’s a “resource war.” He said he saw a bumper sticker recently that expressed it perfectly: “Whip their ass and take their gas.”

The American economy is simply not sustainable, he insisted. It’s headed for a crash. All the signs are there: trade imbalance, huge national debt, record levels of individual debt combined with little savings, a decline in manufacturing, rising health-care costs, a ballooning population of the elderly, rising energy prices combined with an overarching dependence on the automobile for transportation.

“An oil crunch is coming,” he said, noting that while supply is stagnant, demand—in the form of India and China—is skyrocketing. He reminded his audience of the impacts of the OPEC oil embargo of the early 1970s: long lines at gas stations, rising prices and inflation, the whole economy in meltdown.

The Chico bioregion is a microcosm of the larger economy, he said. Despite the abundance of farm products going out, more goods are coming in, thanks to our excessive consumerism. “Look in any garage at the stuff piled up. The average consumer here has more goods than a prosperous village in Africa,” he exclaimed. And we’re no more in balance when it comes to energy than anywhere else in the country.

But if an economic meltdown comes, the Chico area is well positioned to survive it fairly well, Madison said. The end of oil will mean the end of cheap and reliable transportation and a contraction of the national economy, which in turn will produce a revival of regional and local economies.

It will become too expensive to ship goods all over the country, he said, with the result being a return to providing them for those who live in their areas, whether it’s produce, meat, clothing or whatever.

For example, a loaf of bread baked in Sacramento might cost $5 because of shipping costs. That creates an opening for a local baker, using locally grown wheat, to sell a better loaf for less.

Not all regions will do equally well, he said—Las Vegas being a good example of a city utterly reliant on imports of all kinds. But the Chico area has good water, good soil, available timber and well-educated people because of the university. “In the Sacramento Valley,” he said, “the Davis bioregion and the Chico bioregion will be good places to be” in the event of an economic meltdown.

Understand, he urged, that a decline in standard of living does not necessarily mean a decline in quality of life. If the debt and energy crises collapse together, he said, it could cause a serious depression, but here in Chico our quality of life—meaning our social relationships, our relationship with nature, the health of our families—could remain quite high. “If you’re able to be flexible about things, life will be good in the Chico bioregion.”